Global Trade Daily Briefing - 2026-02-12

Daily Foreign Trade Briefing for 2/11/2026. Curated insights on Finance, Logistics, Compliance, and Global Markets.

Global Macro & Finance

Prominent investors are positioning for a shift in monetary policy, with David Einhorn betting on gold amid expectations of aggressive Fed rate cuts, while Galaxy's Mike Novogratz suggests the speculative era for crypto may be ending. Concurrently, major institutions are adjusting their strategies, as the Vatican Bank enters equity indexing and Alphabet leverages low rates to raise over $30 billion for AI investments.

David Einhorn says the Fed will cut 'substantially more' than two times. So he's betting big on gold

David Einhorn is betting big on gold because he expects the Fed to cut interest rates more than twice. (Finance)

Crypto's 'age of speculation' may be over, says Galaxy CEO Mike Novogratz

Galaxy CEO Mike Novogratz believes the 2026 crypto market decline signals the end of the retail speculation era. (Finance)

Vatican Bank makes first foray into equity indexes, setting stage for potential ETF launches

The Vatican Bank has launched its first stock indexes aligned with Catholic values, paving the way for future ETF products. (Finance)

Bitcoin plunge: Bitwise CIO cites 'the four-year cycle' as No. 1 reason for losses

Bitcoin's current drop is part of its typical four-year market cycle, according to Bitwise's CIO. (Finance)

Alphabet boosts debt sale again as total raise exceeds $30 billion, sources say

Alphabet increased its bond sale to over $30 billion to fund its AI expansion. (Finance)

Global Logistics (Sea & Air)

The logistics sector is consolidating, as evidenced by medium-sized carriers losing ground and major alliances reducing transatlantic capacity, while GXO seeks new growth verticals amid flat results. Concurrently, the industry's operational and legal foundations face pivotal moments, from forwarders' reliance on CargoWise to high-stakes Supreme Court cases impacting tariffs and regulation.

GXO eyes new verticals as it reports flat results

GXO is focusing on new growth areas in North America while maintaining its European operations. (The Loadstar)

Medium-sized carriers losing out in capacity race

Medium-sized carriers are falling behind larger competitors in capacity growth after a period of expansion. (The Loadstar)

Ocean Alliance and ONE to cut transatlantic capacity

Ocean Alliance and ONE plan to reduce shipping capacity on the transatlantic route. (The Loadstar)

CargoWise and the forwarder crossroads

CargoWise remains the dominant but increasingly criticized TMS for freight forwarders, seen as both essential and outdated. (The Loadstar)

The US Supreme Court’s supply chain double-header

The US Supreme Court is set to decide two major cases this summer that could significantly impact tariff refunds and freight broker liability, leaving the logistics industry bracing for the outcomes. (The Loadstar)

Regional Markets

European farmers protest agricultural policy in Madrid, while geopolitical tensions rise as the U.S. signals a potential easing of energy sanctions on Venezuela, which is simultaneously reopening its airspace. Meanwhile, Colombia's president alleges a security conspiracy, and European allies Poland and Italy publicly decline to join a key U.S. diplomatic initiative.

Hundreds of tractors roll into Madrid as farmers protest CAP cuts and EU-Mercosur accord

Farmers protested in Madrid against EU agricultural funding cuts and a trade deal with Mercosur. (MercoPress)

US signals easing of energy restrictions after energy secretary’s Caracas visit

The US is considering easing energy sanctions on Venezuela following a meeting between the US Energy Secretary and Venezuelan officials. (MercoPress)

Venezuela reopens airspace as flight links restart after months of disruption

Venezuela has reopened its airspace and is restarting international flights after months of disruption. (MercoPress)

Petro removes police general Urrego after alleging plot to sabotage Trump meeting

Colombian President Petro removed a police general he accused of trying to sabotage his meeting with Donald Trump. (MercoPress)

Poland and Italy decline to join Trump’s Board of Peace, citing doubts and constitutional limits

Poland and Italy have refused to join Trump's proposed Board of Peace due to skepticism and legal constraints. (MercoPress)